2019 predictions: how well did I do?

What will the future bring? In January of every year, I predict what would happen during the year. At the end of the year, I score those predictions to see how well I did. Here are the results for 2019. My predictions turned out to be surprisingly accurate, the biggest miss being that I predicted quantum supremacy would not happen in 2019, whereas it (debatably) did.

1. S&P 500 will be higher at year’s end (80%) — TRUE

It was 2477 on January 2, 2019 and 3215 on December 31, 2019. This is a gain of 30%.

2. The Brexit withdrawal plan will not be approved by Parliament without substantial modifications (85%). (I deliberately posted these predictions right before the vote on January 15.) — TRUE

With the landslide victory of Boris Johnson, however, Brexit seems certain in the next year.

3. No referendum on Brexit will occur (70%). — TRUE

4. UK will not leave the EU by March 29 (75%) — TRUE

5. …but Brexit will not be cancelled (80%) — TRUE

6. Trump will still be president at year’s end (85%) — TRUE

7. Wild-type polio cases will be detected in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but no other countries. The total number of cases will be less than it was in 2018. (70%) — FALSE

2019 was a year of major setbacks for polio eradication. Although wild-type polio cases remained in only Pakistan and Afghanistan, vaccine rumors and fears of toxicity led to attacks on vaccine workers in Pakistan. The number of wild-type cases rose from 21 to 24 in Afghanistan, and from 12 to 101 in Pakistan. Meanwhile, vaccine-derived virus outbreaks exploded, totaling 241 cases — more than double the 104 from 2018. The last mile will be challenging for polio eradication.

8. Despite Trump’s orders, the US will continue to engage in military operations in Syria (60%) — TRUE

Even though there was a partial withdrawal as a response to the Turkish invasion in September, many troops remain. According to the Military Times (https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2019/10/07/how-the-us-troop-withdrawal-from-northern-syria-could-create-an-isis-resurgence/):

“A senior administration official told reporters Monday that Sunday’s announcement did not constitute a full U.S. withdrawal from Syria and that only 50 to 100 U.S. special operations forces were moving to other locations in Syria.”

9. 2019 will be one of the 10 hottest years on record (90%) — TRUE

2019 is expected to be either the 2nd or 3rd year on record: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/2019-concludes-decade-of-exceptional-global-heat-and-high-impact-weather

10. The US will not enter a recession (80%) — TRUE

11. China will not enter a recession (90%) — TRUE

12. Liberals will win the Canadian general election (60%) — TRUE

13. SpaceX’s Dragon capsule will take astronauts to the ISS (70%) — FALSE

Dragon 2, which was supposed to carry humans to the ISS, exploded during testing in May 2019. This was a result of a slug of liquid nitrogen tetroxide leaking into the helium line and getting slammed into a test valve, destroying it: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-explosion-destroyed-crew-dragon-spacecraft-blamed-on-leaking-valve/

14. Despite promises, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic will not take paying passengers to space (70%) — TRUE

15. The Syrian Civil War will still not be over (70%) — TRUE

With Turkey’s invasion and frequent anti-rebel activity by the Syrian government, the civil war is definitely not over: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Syrian_Civil_War#Demilitarization_agreement_falls_apart;_2019_Northwestern_Syria_offensive;_Northern_Syria_Buffer_Zone_established_(May%E2%80%93October_2019)

16. Quantum supremacy will not be demonstrated in 2019 (80%) — FALSE

Google claims to have demonstrated quantum supremacy with its 53 qubit array, performing a task in 200 seconds that would take a classical computer 10,000 years to complete. However, the task in question is simulating a quantum circuit, which feels like cheating. I’ll be conservative and say Google did achieve quantum supremacy, although I think they deserve only half credit.

Simple score: 13/16 (I got really lucky!)

Probability-adjusted score: -0.475 (perfect score: -0.529 +- 0.12). Again, I got lucky — my score is higher than the “perfect” score.