Predictions for 2019

What will the future bring? Every year, I make predictions for the year to come. At the end of the year, I score the predictions. You can see how I did in 2016, 2017, and 2018. Do you have predictions of your own, or thoughts about my predictions? Please post them in the comments below!

I base most of my predictions on either history or the betting markets. For example, the stock market historically goes up year-over-over 80% of the time, and goes down 20% of the time, hence my first prediction. Incumbent parties are historically favored to win in Canadian elections, hence my 11th prediction — even though the Liberals and Conservatives are tied in the polls right now. For Brexit, I followed betting market odds. I’ve found betting markets to be much more robust than polls or my own intuition because they aggregate the wisdom of thousands to millions of people, with a wide variety of opinions, biases, and worldviews. Before the 2016 American election, for example, many polls predicted that Hillary Clinton would win with 90–98% probability. The betting markets were consistently more cautious, allowing for unexpected events by giving her only a 70–80% chance of winning. We all know the cautious predictors ended up being right.

1. S&P 500 will be higher at year’s end (80%)
2. The Brexit withdrawal plan will not be approved by Parliament without substantial modifications (85%). (I deliberately posted these predictions right before the vote on January 15.)
3. No referendum on Brexit will occur (70%).
4. UK will not leave the EU by March 29 (75%)
5. …but Brexit will not be cancelled (80%)
6. Trump will still be president at year’s end (85%)
7. Wild-type polio cases will be detected in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but no other countries. The total number of cases will be less than it was in 2018. (70%)
8. Despite Trump’s orders, the US will continue to engage in military operations in Syria (60%).
9. 2019 will be one of the 10 hottest years on record (90%)
10. The US will not enter a recession (80%)
11. China will not enter a recession (90%)
12. Liberals will win the Canadian general election (60%)
13. SpaceX’s Dragon capsule will take astronauts to the ISS (70%)
14. Despite promises, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic will not take paying passengers to space (70%)
15. The Syrian Civil War will still not be over (70%)
16. Quantum supremacy will not be demonstrated in 2019 (80%)